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Nopoor Policy Brief Nr.44: Defining Scenarios of future Poverty: A Prospective Assessment and Relevant Preventive Policies

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 “Neither tomorrow - nor yesterday - is written. […] The future is a stimulating prospect of adventure and flight - tomorrow is not written. The future therefore has to be shaped since it is not merely a matter of fatality or destiny; it is in the hands of each human being. Our lives, at the personal and social level, are open-ended projects capable of reaching unsuspected heights of beauty and creativity", Federico Mayor Zaragoza.

In order to plan strategic policy-oriented measures to reduce poverty, a long-term view should be prioritized. This essentially means the recognition of the many factors that can lead to “surprising futures”, and the different ways they can combine at a fundamental level to define potential future scenarios. This brief adopts a forward-looking analysis of potential new scenarios of poverty, related to emerging social issues. Specifically, the main objective is to answer this question: what are the major trends which may have an effect on poverty reduction to 2030?

Image: ©IRD - Dukhan, Michel