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D 9.4 Defining scenarios on future poverty: a prospective assessment

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This report aims to prompt an academic discussion of the most important issues surrounding poverty and, more specifically, its future projections through to the 2030. The chosen methodology suggests taking action in what are considered to be the most vulnerable regions, that is, North and Sub-Saharan Africa, South-East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, and Latin America. These areas have proved in need of urgent recommendations for more efficient policy development. Major societal challenges such as global warming, chronic diseases, population growth and the spread of technology are building and becoming more complex. The main purpose of this study is therefore to take a multidisciplinary approach to answer the following question: which major trends will affect poverty reduction through to 2030? In this respect, the design of strategic scenarios could help policymakers anticipate threats by measuring their likelihood and potential impacts to be able to “rehearse for the future”. This particular analysis, a specific NOPOOR Project task, has been carried out by a multidisciplinary research group comprising ITESM-EGAP, University Autonoma de Madrid, OIKODROM and Paris Dauphine University. The team has designed a research methodology to identify the main drivers and key uncertainties, including threats that could have an impact on poverty in the medium and in the long term.